Europe has no alternative to Russian natural gas
Dmitry Orlov
Those who are still paying attention to the pronouncements of European marionettes I mean national leaders, and who know a thing or two about energy, were probably quite amused to hear one of them say that Germany plans to reduce its imports of Russian gas to 10%, and another one to declare that Europe won’t be paying for Russian gas in rubles because he doesn’t even know what a ruble looks like. Silly pronouncements like these are to be expected from marionettes, who probably haven’t been to school, and if they were, then it was probably some sort of marionette school where they didn’t have to struggle with hard subjects like math, physics or chemistry.
We can lament all we want the sorry state of old European nations and the fact that they are figureheaded by brainless prats, but for those of us still possessed of mental faculties this won’t change the fact that Europe cannot survive for long without Russian natural gas. A proper motto for Europe would be “Give me Russian gas, or give me death!”I will now provide a full rationale for this motto in both a short-term and a long-term perspective.
When pointing out that Europe’s energy situation is absolutely desperate, one often hears the following quick retort: “This is all nonsense. Europe simply won’t buy any gas right now. There is plenty of time before next winter and by then Russia will capitulate and offer its gas for free.”Let me fill you in on how natural gas delivery networks operate. In order to survive the winter heating season, Europe has to completely fill its underground gas storage by November while currently it is close to empty. If that doesn’t happen, then, even with natural gas deliveries from outside at full flow,
Europeans will have to choose between shutting down industry and leaving buildings unheated. Existing European natural gas infrastructure simply does not have the capacity to fill its underground gas storage in a day, a week or a month. Its volume is assessed at 100 billion cubic meters. Nord Stream 1, at maximum flow, can deliver 160 million cubic meters per day. Another 100 million cubic meters per day is currently being pumped through the Ukrainian pipeline. Add to that Yamal-Europe and Turk Stream, at 300 million cubic meters per day. By the end of the current heating season there will be less than 20 billion cubic meters left in underground storage (excluding trapped “technical gas” used to keep it pressurized). Maximum capacity of liquefied natural gas regasification plants in Europe is another 400 million cubic meters per day. Oh, and Europe still produces 150 million cubic meters per day on its own. And so the maximum available natural gas delivery capacity for all of Europe adds up to 850 million cubic meters per day. Applying advanced arithmetic principles, we arrive at the inevitable conclusion that it is impossible to fill Europe’s underground storage in any less than 100 days!
But that assumes that not a single cubic meter of gas will be used up in the meantime. That assumption is obviously not valid. Also, there are restrictions on how fast underground storage can be pumped up; the process slows down as storage is filled and pressure increases. In reality, to reach the stated goal of 90% of capacity by the beginning of the 2022 heating season, underground storage has to start getting filled by the middle of April—that is, right freaking now! Otherwise there will be no chance of catching up. And if Europe refuses to buy Russia’s 300 million cubic meters per day using rubles it currently doesn’t have, then there is no hope at all of making it through the heating season.
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